| 序号 | 研究机构 | 分析师 | 投资评级 | 报告标题 | 更新日 |
| | | 上期评级 | 评级变动 | | |
| 1 | 招银国际 | Benchen Huang,Jill Wu | 维持 | 买入 | 1Q26 results: a strong start driven by CDMO services | 2026-04-30 |
康龙化成(300759)
RMB3.58bn and adj.non-IFRS attributable net profit increasing16.2%YoY toRMB406mn.1Q26revenue/adj.net profit accounted for21.8%/18.8%of our full-year estimates,largely in line with historical ranges.New orders in1Q26surgedover30%YoY,a significant acceleration from the14%YoY growth recorded in2025.Mgmt.maintained full-year revenue growth guidance of12%-18%.
Demand accelerated in1Q26.Total new orders grew by>30%YoY in1Q26,including>20%and>50%YoY growth for lab services and small moleculeCDMO,respectively,both significantly outpacing their2025growth rates.This encouraging order momentum was primarily driven by:1)Successfulstrategic expansion with MNC clients,with1Q26revenue from Top20globalpharmaceutical companies soaring47.98%YoY;2)A recovery in domesticdemand,as revenue from Chinese clients grew43.4%YoY,coupled with astrong out-licensing trend where Pharmaron has been playing a critical role;3)Continued rapid revenue growth from new modalities;and4)The signingof a major DP(Drug Product)contract in the small molecule CDMO segment,alongside the progression of other pipeline projects into later stages.
Strong demand in small molecule CDMO.The segment generated revenueof RMB866mn in1Q26,up25.0%YoY,significantly outperforming othersegments.Notably,the Company secured a commercial DP contract for EliLilly's oral small molecule GLP-1drug,Orforglipron,in1Q26.Serving over1,000projects annually with a broad coverage of promising targets andmolecules,Pharmaron is well-positioned to capture major manufacturingorders in the future.As current capacity is highly utilized,the Company willcontinue to advance the PhII construction at Shaoxing site and plan for newcapacity expansions.Mgmt.expects capex for2026to be~RMB3.0bn(+12.4%YoY),with a strategic focus on bolstering CDMO capacity for late-stage projects and new modalities.Based on current demand and capacityplanning,mgmt.expects the small molecule CDMO segment to consistentlyoutpace the Company’s overall growth in the coming years.
Clinical services targeting loss reduction this year.Revenue from clinicalservices increased by11.8%YoY,accelerating from the7.1%YoY growth in2025.However,segment GPM came in at7.1%in1Q26,down4.7ppts YoY,primarily due to revenue mix changes and pricing competition in Chinamarket.Regarding new orders,SMO pricing has shown recoveries,whileCRO price pressure has moderated compared to last year.Nevertheless,given the long conversion cycle of clinical programs,the Company is stillexecuting low-priced orders secured last year.Mgmt.expects the segment toremain in a loss-reduction phase throughout2026,with performance likely toimprove next year as higher-priced orders set to be converted into revenue.
Maintain BUY.Our DCF-based TP is maintained at RMB39.00(WACC of9.32%;terminal growth of2.0%;both unchanged).We forecast Pharmaron’srevenue to grow by16.5%/16.2%/14.9%YoY and adj.net profit to increaseby18.8%/17.8%/16.1%YoY in2026E/27E/28E,respectively. |
| 2 | 中邮证券 | 盛丽华,辛家齐 | 首次 | 买入 | CDMO订单及收入快速增长,新疗法产能建设积极 | 2026-04-17 |
康龙化成(300759)
l事件
公司发布2025年度业绩,全年营业收入140.95亿元,同比增长14.82%,归属于上市公司股东的净利润为16.64亿元,同比下降7.22%(受上年同期处置股权产生大额投资收益形成高基数影响)。扣除非经常性损益的净利润实现15.38亿元,同比增长38.85%,Non-IFRS经调整净利润18.16亿元,同比增长13.02%。
l核心观点
商业化CDMO能力持续提升,获重要客户认可。公司小分子CDMO(CMC)服务收入达34.83亿元,同比增长16.53%。产能方面,宁波与绍兴的API生产车间先后通过美国FDA的新药批准前检查(PAI);第四季度,公司历史上首个供应美国市场的创新药API商业化生产项目获批;2026年第一季度,更与国际大型药企签订战略合作协议,为其首个注册申报的口服小分子GLP-1受体激动剂提供商业化生产服务。目前公司工艺验证及商业化项目达34个,临床III期项目达47个,较上年显著增加。
订单充裕,收入结构明显改善。公司2025年新签订单同比增长超14%,为收入持续增长奠定基础。收入占比方面:来自全球前20大制药企业(MNC)的收入达28.31亿元,同比大幅增长29.37%,占营收比重20.09%,客户结构持续优化。同时,全球化布局支撑收入韧性,海外收入占比高达84.84%,其中北美市场收入占61.82%,欧洲市场收入增长27.42%,公司在主要海外市场的竞争力不断增强。报告期内新增客户超950家,服务全球活跃客户总数超过3300家,客户基础的持续拓宽与深化共同驱动了高质量增长。
新领域发力,技术驱动与产能建设并举。在新兴疗法领域,公司着力打造端到端的一体化服务平台:在宁波园区,用于早期临床用药生产的GMP生物偶联车间已投入使用,可为客户提供I/II期临床试验用药的一体化ADC生产服务,并正推进中后期及商业化产能建设;在复杂多肽药物方面,新的、更大规模的多肽原料药固相合成车间预计将于2026年建成。此外,绍兴二期产能部分小分子新药生产车间已陆续投用,支撑CMC业务中长期发展。
l盈利预测与投资建议
预计公司26/27/28年收入分别为162.48/184.68/207.06亿元,同比增长15.27%/13.66%/12.12%;归母净利润为20.93/24.91/28.84亿元,同比增长25.77%/19.05%/15.76%,对应PE为27/23/20倍。公司是领先的医药研发服务企业,新业务增长确定性明显。首次覆盖,给予“买入”评级。
l风险提示
下游研发需求变动风险;市场竞争加剧风险;地缘政治风险 |
| 3 | 西南证券 | 杜向阳 | | | 2025年年报点评:实验室服务稳健增长,CDMO打开第二成长曲线 | 2026-04-09 |
康龙化成(300759)
投资要点
事件:公司发布2025年年报,2025年全年实现营业收入141.0亿元,同比增长14.8%;实现归母净利润16.6亿元,同比下降7.2%;实现经调整Non-IFRSs净利润为18.2亿元,同比增长13.0%。
2025年,公司新签订单金额同比增长超过14%。根据新签订单和业务趋势,公司预计2026年全年收入将同比增长12%~18%。
实验室服务:基石业务稳健增长。2025年公司实验室服务实现营业收入81.6亿元(其中生物科学占比超56%),同比增长15.8%,实现毛利率45.1%,同比提高0.2pp;板块新签订单同比增长约12%。产能方面,公司持续推进产能建设,北京第三园区逐步投入使用。
CMC:项目向临床与商业化推进,打开第二成长曲线。2025年公司CMC(小分子CDMO)服务实现营业收入34.8亿元,同比增长16.5%,实现毛利率34.31%,同比提高0.7pp。公司2025年CMC服务涉及药物分子或中间体1102个,其中工艺验证和商业化阶段项目34个、临床III期项目47个、临床I-II期项目271个、临床前项目750个。伴随着项目数量的增加以及客户产品管线持续向后期推进,报告期内,公司CMC(小分子CDMO)服务新签订单同比增长约13%(订单节点增速放缓主要受大规模生产订单签订时点影响,该订单于2026年一季度完成签订)。
临床研究服务:2025年公司临床研究服务实现营业收入19.6亿元,同比增长7.14%,实现毛利率11.41%,同比下降1.41pp,行业逐步触底整合。在中国临床研究服务行业触底整合的过程中,康龙临床凭借不断提升的品牌影响力和竞争力,服务项目和收入逆势增长。
盈利预测:预计2026-2028年公司营业收入增速分别为15.7%、15.9%、16.1%,归母净利润增速分别为21.7%、22.2%、21.7%。
风险提示:国内外医药投融资不及预期的风险、汇率波动的风险等。 |
| 4 | 开源证券 | 余汝意 | 维持 | 买入 | 公司信息更新报告:营收稳健增长,新签大订单助力长期发展 | 2026-04-02 |
康龙化成(300759)
2025季度业绩环比持续增长,盈利质量稳步提升,2026年有望加速增长
2025年公司实现营收140.95亿元,同比增长14.8%;实现归母净利润16.64亿元,同比下降7.2%,主要系2024年同期处置PROTEOLOGIX,INC.股权产生大额投资收益影响;实现Non-IFRSs经调整归母净利润18.16亿元,同比增长13.0%,经调整Non-IFRS归母净利率达12.9%。单看2025年Q4,公司实现营业收入40.09亿元,同比增长15.9%,环比增长10.0%,2025业绩逐季增长;实现归母净利润5.23亿元,同比增长40.7%,环比增长19.0%;实现经调整Non-IFRS归母净利润5.90亿元,同比+18.0%,环比+25.2%,经调整Non-IFRS归母净利率达14.7%。随着全球生物医药投融资逐步复苏,公司2025年新签订单同比增长超14%,新增客户950+家。考虑到公司2026年获大额CDMO订单,全年收入确定性增强,我们上调2026-2027年盈利预测并新增2028年盈利预测,预计2026-2028年公司归母净利润为22.13/29.34/37.65亿元(原22.74/27.82亿元),EPS为1.20/1.60/2.05元,当前股价对应PE为22.2/16.8/13.1倍,维持“买入”评级。
2026年与MNC签订大规模小分子CDMO订单,公司业绩确定性进一步增强
2025年公司小分子CDMO服务实现营收34.83亿元,同比增长16.5%,毛利率33.8%,同比+0.7pct;2025年Q4实现营收11.90亿元,同比增长17.6%,环比增长37.8%,实现毛利率37.8%,下半年盈利质量改善明显。2025年度CMC服务板块新签订单同比增长约13%,且公司于2026Q1与一家国际大型制药公司签订大规模生产订单,为公司达成2026年收入指引上限的关键因素之一。
临床业务逆势增长,大分子和细胞与基因治疗服务能力不断提升
2025年度公司临床研究服务实现营收19.57亿元,同比增长7.1%,在中国临床服务行业触底整合的过程中,康龙临床凭借不断提升的品牌影响力和竞争力,服务项目和收入逆势增长。2025年度公司大分子和细胞与基因治疗服务实现营收4.75亿元,同比增长16.5%,控股佰翱得,提升复杂药靶蛋白制备及分析能力。
风险提示:订单交付不及预期;核心技术人员流失;环保和安全生产风险。 |
| 5 | 招银国际 | Benchen Huang,Jill Wu | 维持 | 买入 | Landmark CDMO deal to fuel future growth | 2026-04-01 |
康龙化成(300759)
Pharmaron reported2025financial results,with revenue growing by14.8%YoYto RMB14.10bn,and non-IFRS adj.net profit increasing by13.0%YoY toRMB1.82bn.Both revenue and profit growth meaningfully accelerated comparedto2024.The Company's2025revenue and adj.net profit came in0.5%and0.7%higher than our estimates,respectively,aligning with our expectations.Lookingahead,mgmt.expects revenue to grow by12-18%YoY in2026.It is worth notingthat this guidance incorporates a negative impact of3ppts from FX.
Global customer demand continued to expand.Driven by the penetrationof strategic clients within the lab services and deliveries of CDMO projects,revenue from global Top20pharma clients surged by29.4%YoY,farexceeding the Company's overall growth.Similarly,revenue from Europeanclients grew by27.4%YoY,also well above the Company’s average,primarilydriven by effective go-to-market strategies and steady advancement ofCDMO pipeline.Newly signed orders increased by over14%YoY,extendingthe robust growth trend following a>20%YoY increase in2024.As the corebusiness,lab services saw its new bookings grow by~12%YoY in2025.Meanwhile,small molecule CDMO also showed encouraging momentum,delivering~13%YoY growth in new orders.During the year,the segmentadded24PhIII and15PPQ&commercialization projects,continuouslyelevating its commercial manufacturing potential going forward.Furthermore,the growth of new orders in clinical development segment outpaced theCompany’s average,indicating a stabilization and early recovery in clinicaldemand from domestic clients and the Company's expanding market share.
Pivotal breakthroughs in small molecule CDMO commercial services.InMar2026,Pharmaron announced a commercial DP agreement with Eli Lillyfor the oral GLP-1drug,Orforglipron,a potential blockbuster.Under thisagreement,Eli Lilly will invest US$200mn in Pharmaron to support the build-out of technical capabilities,with the potential to further expand collaborationscope.The milestone partnership will not only generate significantincremental revenue in the future(despite limited contribution for2026),butalso signifies that Pharmaron's CDMO platform fully complies with thestringent quality systems of top-tier pharma companies.Consequently,thiswill serve as a powerful endorsement for Pharmaron to continuously expandin global market.Beyond the breakthrough in DP services,Pharmaron'sCDMO business has also established its commercial API capabilities.Its APIfacilities in Shaoxing and Ningbo have both passed the FDA inspections,while its first innovative API project in the US was approved in4Q25.Giventhe DP partnership with Eli Lilly and other pipeline advancements,we expectthe small molecule CDMO business to grow at a faster pace than theCompany's other business lines over the next three years.
Maintain BUY.We raise our DCF-based TP from RMB38.08to RMB39.00(WACC of9.32%;terminal growth of2.0%),to reflect a more positive trend ofglobal demand on R&D and manufacturing outsourcing.We forecastPharmaron’s revenue to grow by16.4%/15.9%/14.9%YoY and adj.net profitto increase by18.7%/17.7%/16.5%YoY in2026E/27E/28E,respectively. |
| 6 | 招银国际 | 黄本晨,武煜 | 首次 | 买入 | 具备加速增长潜力的一体化CXO | 2026-01-23 |
康龙化成(300759)
康龙化成成立于2004年,是中国最早布局一体化CXO的企业之一,现已发展成为具备国际认可度的中国CXO领军企业。公司为全球客户提供覆盖药物研发全生命周期的服务。凭借其端到端服务能力,公司有望充分受益于全球医药研发外包需求的持续增长。我们首次覆盖康龙化成,给予“买入”评级,目标价38.08元人民币。
全球少有的一站式CXO服务平台。作为中国药物发现与临床前CRO服务领域的Top2企业,康龙化成已战略性拓展至小分子CDMO、临床开发、大分子及细胞与基因治疗(CGT)领域,成功构建覆盖药物研发全流程的一站式CXO平台。该模式可显著降低客户在不同研发阶段切换供应商所带来的运营风险、时间延误与成本损耗。在当前生物制药企业愈发重视研发效率、速度与可靠性的背景下,我们相信一站式CXO平台将持续在全球市场内享有显著的竞争优势。
业务板块协同发展,构筑高韧性增长生态。1)实验室服务作为公司长期发展的基石,2024年新签订单同比增长超15%,2025年前三季度延续相似增长态势,为该板块提供稳健增长支撑;2)小分子CDMO与实验室服务高度协同。鉴于2024年已获取商业化阶段项目且当前管线中早期项目占比超95%,未来商业化生产需求有望加速释放。该板块2024年新签订单同比增长超35%,2025年前三季度增速约20%,已成为公司增长最快的业务板块;3)临床研究服务于2021年开始整合全球临床团队,当前该业务的人均创收及毛利率均低于同业水平,显示其运营效率存在显著提升空间;4)在全球复杂分子疗法研发需求快速上升的背景下,大分子与CGT业务板块有望在中长期为公司带来业务多元化与高附加值增长。
受益于行业需求复苏。作为全球医药研发体系的深度参与者,康龙化成的业务表现与全球生命科学行业的宏观趋势高度关联。从融资与药企投入两大维度看,全球创新药研发需求在2H25已实现明显回暖。据医药魔方数据,2H25全球创新药融资额同比增长22.5%,其中中国同比激增215.4%。随着美联储有望延续降息周期,我们判断融资回暖趋势大概率延续至2026年。此外,全球Top10药企1H25合计研发投入同比增长5.3%,重回正增长轨道,头部Biotech公司研发支出亦趋于稳定,进一步夯实CXO行业需求基础。
首次覆盖给予“买入”评级,目标价38.08元人民币。预计公司2025E/2026E/2027E收入将分别同比增长14.2%/14.8%/16.3%,non-IFRS净利润同比增长12.3%/17.8%/18.7%。 |