广汽集团(601238) Maintain BUY.GAC’s2Q26net loss widened QoQ on selling expenses andequity income,despite revenue beat.Management raised FY26E export targetby20%,which may result in margin improvement in2H26E.That,along withimproving Aion retail customer mix and continuous cost reduction efforts,coulddrive multi-year GPM recovery,in our view. 2Q26revenue beat,brand-building expenses drag.GAC’s2Q26revenue rose16%YoY and beat our estimate by13%to RMB26.3bn.GPMimproved slightly to-2.4%(vs.-2.7%in1Q26and-4.9%in2Q25),beatingour forecast of-3.1%.Net loss in2Q26widened by almost RMB3.2bn QoQto RMB3.8bn on larger selling expenses(Aistaland’s brand building andnetwork build-out,as well as homegrown brands’overseas channelexpansion)and weaker equity income(GAC Honda’s wider net loss with30%QoQ sales volume decline). Margin recovery on exports and customer mix improvement.Following a132%YoY surge in1H26overseas sales volume,management raised its FY26E export target to0.3mn(from0.25mn),or~39%of our homegrown volume forecast.Overseas gross margin isguided at~8%this year,significantly outperforming domestic negativemargins.Localization efforts continue to mitigate tariff risks,with seven KDplants in operation.Meanwhile,Aion’s domestic customer mix is improving,with ride-hailing accounting for~20%in1H26(vs.~50%in FY25).Suchtrends,coupled with a15%cost-reduction target in FY26,we expect GPMto recover to-1.2%in2H26E,+0.6%in FY27E and+2.7%in FY28E. Aistaland rollout on track;JV outlook diverges.The first Huawei co-developed model,Aistaland GT7,launched on26Jun with298saleschannels(40%Huawei-authorized)in operation,following by the2ndmodel GX7in Sep.GAC Toyota remains resilient,with a denser2027-28NEV pipeline supporting our stable RMB2.1-2.2bn annual equity incomecontribution during FY26-28E.Upcoming models at GAC Honda willincorporate HarmonyOS cockpits and Momenta ADAS solutions.Weproject GAC Honda’s net loss to narrow in FY27-28E. Earnings/Valuation.We now project GAC’s FY26-28E net loss to beRMB9.9bn/6.5bn/4.2bn,respectively.We maintain BUY and cut H-sharetarget price from HK$4.20to HK$3.60,based on a SOTP valuation:HK$2.85per share for homegrown businesses at0.2x FY27E P/S(loweredfrom0.3x due to larger net loss projection);and HK$0.75per share for JVsand associates at an unchanged3.0x FY27E equity-income P/E.Our A-share target price of RMB8.60reflects a175%A/H premium.Key risksinclude lower sales volume/margins,further JV earnings erosion,higheroverseas risks than we expect,and a sector de-rating.

     广汽集团(601238) 投资要点 公司公告：2026Q1公司营收202.3亿元，同环比分别+2%/-32%，归母净利润为-6.6亿元（2025Q1为-7.3亿元，2025Q4为-44.7亿元），扣非后归母净利润为-13.8亿元（2025Q1为-8.9亿元，2025Q4为-50.9亿元）。 单季度亏损同环比收窄。1）营收层面：广汽乘用车/广汽埃安Q1批发销量分别为9.2/7.4万辆，同比分别+33%/+57%，环比分别0/-31%；广汽自主Q1ASP为12.2万元，同环比分别-29%/-18%。公司营收同比增速低于销量同比增速。2）毛利率：公司Q1销售毛利率为-0.9%，同环比为-1/-1pct。3）投资收益：26Q1投资收益21.3亿元，同环比均大幅增加，主因为公司4月1日公告，子公司优湃能源向控股股东广汽工业集团出售新疆昆仑蓝钻12%股权，并调整会计核算方式，两项合计增加归母净利润约8.9亿元。从合资公司表现来看广丰表现相对较佳，广本销量/利润仍承压。广汽本田/广汽丰田Q1销量分别为4.0/17.3万辆，同比分别-57%/+7%，环比分别-71%/-21%。4）公司Q1实现归母净利润-6.6亿元，同比减亏。 盈利预测与投资评级：我们维持公司2026/2027/2028年归母净利润预期为-35亿元/-18亿元/-0.8亿元。考虑公司合资逐步触底，集团改革加速，与华为合作品牌启境首款车型已亮相，有望为公司带来销量增量。因此我们仍维持“买入”评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧风险；对外合作进展低预期；大额资产减值损失相关风险等。

     广汽集团(601238) 投资要点 公司公告：广汽集团发布2025年年报业绩，2025Q4公司营收为296.1亿元，同环比分别-10%/+22%，归母净利润为-44.7亿元（2024Q4为7.0亿元，2025Q3为-17.7亿元），扣非后归母净利润为-50.9亿元（2024Q4为-24.8亿元，2025Q3为-18.3亿元）。 业绩表现低于我们预期。1）营收层面：公司Q4营收环比改善。广汽乘用车/广汽埃安Q4批发销量分别为9.2/10.7万辆，同比分别-33%/-28%，环比分别+14%/+43%；广汽自主Q4ASP为14.9万元，同环比分别+4%/-5%。2）毛利率：公司Q4销售毛利率为0.6%，同环比为-5/+3pct。毛利率转正主要系销量环比修复，叠加公司持续推进降本增效所致。3）费用率：Q4公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别为6.8%/3.0%/2.1%，同比分别+4/-1/0pct，环比分别+1/-2/+1pct。4）投资收益：广丰表现相对较佳，广本销量/利润仍承压。广汽本田/广汽丰田Q4销量分别为13.6/21.9万辆，同比分别-16%/+0%，环比分别+121%/+14%。广本/广丰25H2净利润分别为-15.6/17.9亿元，单车盈利分别为-0.8/0.4万元。5）25Q4公司计提了大额资产减值损失22.4亿元。最终公司Q4实现归母净利润为-44.7亿元（2024Q4为+7.0亿元，2025Q3为-17.7亿元）。 盈利预测与投资评级：由于行业竞争加剧背景，我们下调公司2026/2027年归母净利润预期至-35/-18亿元（原为13/46亿元），我们预计公司2028年归母净利润为-0.8亿元。考虑公司合资逐步触底，集团改革加速，与华为合作品牌启境首款车型已亮相，有望为公司带来销量增量。因此我们仍维持“买入”评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧风险；对外合作进展低预期；大额资产减值损失相关风险等。

     广汽集团(601238) Maintain BUY.We expect the launch of GAC’s first model co-developed withHuawei in Jun2026to be a positive catalyst,following non-event FY25results.We also expect exports to double YoY,cost reduction to be more apparent andequity income to stabilize,which help GAC narrow its net loss in FY26E. 4Q25results in line with profit warning.GAC’s4Q25revenue rose22%QoQ to RMB29.6bn,23%higher than our forecast.GPM improved3.8pptsQoQ to-0.8%,beating our forecast by2.9ppts.Share of profits from JVsand associates in4Q25turned negative(RMB-390mn)for the first timesince FY12amid widening losses at GAC Honda.That,along with a larger-than-expected impairment of RMB2.4bn,resulted in a net loss ofRMB4.5bn in4Q25,in line with its previous profit warning. Aistaland and exports as keys to FY26E.The GT7,the first mid-to-largecar under the Aistaland brand co-developed with Huawei,will be launchedin Jun2026,which could be a positive catalyst for GAC’s shares.Inaddition,GAC aims to double export volume to0.25mn units for itshomegrown brands this year.We expect an increased export mix to liftGPM by3.3ppts YoY to0.5%in FY26E,given that overseas GPM was10.7ppts higher than domestic one in FY25. Equity income could stabilize in FY26E.We believe GAC Toyotaremains better positioned than most of its JV peers in China,with a resilient4.6%NPM and earnings contribution of RMB2.5bn in FY25.The successof the bZ3X has provided a viable path for Toyota’s NEV transition inChina.We expect GAC Honda’s loss in FY26E to narrow from RMB981mnin FY25with capacity and personnel downsizing.Therefore,we expectGAC’s equity income to be RMB2.2bn in FY26E,vs.RMB2.5bn in FY25.In addition,we also expect more cooperation between GAC and its JVsduring NEV transition,which could increase GAC’s income. Earnings/Valuation.We expect GAC’s SG&A and R&D ratios combinedto fall1.7ppts YoY to10.5%in FY26E amid its continued cost reductionefforts.Therefore,we estimate FY26E net loss to narrow to RMB4.8bn.Wemaintain our BUY rating and cut our H-share target price slightly fromHK$4.30to HK$4.20,based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation.We valueall GAC’s consolidated businesses at HK$3.40per share,based on0.3x(unchanged)our FY26E P/S.We value its JVs and associates at HK$0.80per share based on3x(unchanged)FY26E P/E.Our A-share TP ofRMB9.00is based on an A/H premium of142%.Key risks to our rating andTP include lower sales volume and margins than we expect,slowerelectrification for its JVs than we expect,and a sector de-rating.