恒立液压(601100) We forecast Hengli to deliver 30% YoY revenue growth in 2Q26, driven bystrong hydraulic parts for excavators, as well as fast-growing precision revenue.On the profit side, we expect net profit to largely stay flat YoY at ~RMB800mnin 2Q26, due to (1) high base arising from high gross margin (44%) in 2Q25, (2)FX loss of ~RMB200mn, based on our estimates, as a result of the appreciationof RMB in 2Q26. On the other hand, we believe the latest ban on foreignhumanoid robots (source) sales in the US will have no impact on Hengli, giventhat the majority of Hengli’s capacity of robotic ball screws is allocated to a majorUS robot manufacturer. Our TP is unchanged at RMB125 (based on 48x 2026EP/E, 1.5SD above the historical average to reflect both the upcycle of hydraulicbusiness and the huge growth potential of precision business). Hengli remainsa key pick in our universe. Reiterate BUY. New ban on foreign robotic devices in the US. The US FederalCommunications Commission (FCC) released on 28 Jul that non-US madeadvanced mobile robots (including humanoids and quadrupeds) and powerinverters will be banned from selling in the US (unless exemptions aregranted), due to national security concerns. We believe Hengli, acomponent supplier tied mainly to the US humanoid robot supply chain, willsee insignificant impact from such ban. Risk factors: (1) Slowdown of demand for hydraulic components; (2)slower-than-expected new business development.

     恒立液压(601100) We arranged a site visit tour for investors to Hengli’s production base inChangzhou on 3 Jun. Key takeaways include: (1) Strong demand for linearguideways driven by machine tools and semiconductor segments; (2) Hugepotential for ball screws for humanoid robots due to strong commitment from themajor customer; (3) Capacity for cylinders, pumps and valves are running at fullutilisation driven by a wide range of downstream demand such as miningequipment and agricultural machinery. We revise up our 2027E/28E earningsforecasts by 4%/7%, due to higher volume assumptions. We now forecastPrecision Industry revenue (linear guideways & ball screws) to increase fromRMB80mn in 2025 to RMB0.4bn/1bn in 2027E/28E. We revise up our TP toRMB125 (from RMB109), based on 48x 2026E P/E, 1.5SD above the historicalaverage (previously 1SD). Our expanded premium is to reflect both the upcycleof hydraulic business and the huge growth potential of precision business.Reiterate BUY. Key takeaways: Linear guideways: At present, 90% of the linear actuator products arelinear guideways which are produced in Changzhou factory. The productsare applied in machine tools and semiconductor sectors which saw verystrong demand. High precision is required in these applications. Ball screws for humanoid robots: A typical humanoid robot needs a totalof 14 ball screws (4 for each leg; 3 for each arm excluding fingers). Henglibelieves the keys to success in ball screw business include (1) productdesign; (2) production yield rate (for cost reduction); and (3) inspection (forproduct quality). Hengli has strong bonding with the major overseascustomer and can participate in certain product design. Hengli’s productscurrently account for <10% of the total value of a humanoid robot but willpotentially increase to 10-20% in the future. According to Hengli, ball screwshipment volume is insignificant at the moment but is expected to see strongvolume growth in 2H26E, and it will likely allocate the production of ballscrews to Mexico plant. We expect Hengli will further expand its capacityover the coming years. Strong growth across hydraulic business lines: Demand for excavatorcylinders, pumps & valves is robust, and capacity is running at full utilisation.For instance, strong mining activities in Africa have boosted highreplacement demand for mining equipment. For pumps & valves, Hengli isconfident of increasing their penetration in the major US machinerymanufacturer (10% at present), as the Japanese hydraulic componentsmakers have just raised ASP.

     恒立液压(601100) 核心观点 2025年营业收入同比增长16.52%，归母净利润同比增长8.99%。2025年公司实现营收109.41亿元，同比增长16.52%；归母净利润27.34亿元，同比增长8.99%，主要系工程机械行业景气度回升，挖掘机用液压产品销售额同比增长超20%所致。单季度看，2025年第四季度实现营收31.51亿元，同比增长28.41%，归母净利润6.47亿元，同比下滑9.76%；2026年第一季度实现营收32.10亿元，同比增长32.52%，归母净利润6.52亿元，同比增长5.59%，主要系汇兑损益影响。盈利能力方面，2025年公司毛利率/净利率为41.15%/24.98%，同比下降1.32/1.54个百分点；2026年第一季度毛利率/净利率为38.57%/20.31%，同比下降2.60/4.54个百分点。费用率方面，2025年公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为2.33%/5.93%/6.44%/0.05%，同比变动+0.02/-0.37/-1.31/+1.94个百分点，其中财务费用率上升主要系汇率波动导致汇兑损失增加。 液压泵阀及马达业务增长强劲，线性驱动项目已具规模。2025年液压油缸实现收入52.54亿元，同比增长10.36%，毛利率39.71%（同比-2.97pct）；液压泵阀及马达实现收入43.26亿元，同比增长20.72%，毛利率48.83%（同比+0.89pct）；液压系统实现收入3.85亿元，同比增长30.00%（同比-3.68pct）。公司线性驱动项目已正式投产，具备年产高精度直线导轨36万米、精密磨削滚珠丝杠7万套的生产能力，已达成合作客户超过300余家，行星滚柱丝杠已完成送样和初步量产，为公司精密传动业务开拓多元化下游市场。 全球化布局加速落地，智能制造能力获国家级认可。公司墨西哥基地顺利投产运营，并在英国、意大利、印尼、几内亚等海外服务点相继设立，完成从“产品出海”向“制造出海、服务出海、品牌出海”的迭代升级。报告期内，公司成功下线全球首套156米打桩船闭式能量回收系统及全球最大启闭油缸，参与世纪工程平陆运河项目，进军水利高端装备领域。公司“高端液压元件柔性智能工厂”通过国家卓越级智能工厂认定，全年研发投入7.05亿元，研发人员1,104人，累计拥有有效专利1,125项。 投资建议：公司是国内液压件龙头，业绩确定性高，将充分受益主业海外突破加速且国内贝塔企稳向好，同时在人形机器人领域卡为核心，有望显著受益于具身智能产业发展。我们预计2026年-2027年归母净利润分别为36.01/44.48亿元（前值32.32/38.00亿元），新增2028年净利润53.71亿元，对应PE43/35/29倍，维持“优于大市”评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧；客户突破不及预期；新产品拓展不及预期。