卓胜微(300782) 2Q26利润端压力仍在：卓胜微2Q26营收9.82亿元（人民币，下同），1H26总体收入18.1亿元，同比增长6.2%。单季毛利率14.7%，同比降约12.3个百分点，环比降约3.8个百分点。1H26总体扣非净利润为-3.71亿元，较去年同期-1.47亿元有所扩大。管理层指出盈利下滑的主要原因是公司在Fab-Lite转型期间因持续的产能建设投入，折旧带动成本费用的增加及供应转化影响，产品结构变化，叠加由AI引发的产业链供给侧需求挤兑和原材料价格上涨及竞争仍然激烈等综合因素的影响。截至报告期末，6英寸晶圆生产线已稳定保持单月1.5万片的产能能力。通过芯卓资源平台实现的生产制造、工艺12英寸产线进入稳定生产阶段，已形成每月9000片晶圆量产能力，工艺布局覆盖SOI、IPD、BCD、SiGe等特色异质材料及特种工艺。 确立向光互联领域战略延伸：公司在1H26确立向光互联延伸的战略。管理层认为，光互联与公司现有射频业务具备良好的战略协同：技术上，二者同属高频高速电子领域，公司芯卓工艺平台的技术能力可实现有效迁移与复用；运营上，Fab-Lite模式在光互联领域同样适用且价值突出。从海外经验看，我们认为射频前端产线向光互联转型或是近期产业趋势。我们计算海外部分厂房改造和设备调试时间限度大概为2年以上，而中国内地的工程人才，基础设施等优势或加快这一速度。 维持中性评级，下调目标价：考虑到整体射频前端终端市场受到关键芯片和原材料的涨价影响，我们判断射频前端需求/出货量压力或持续，并至少持续到1H27。我们调整2026/27/28年收入预测到39.2/44.5/50.0亿元（前值40.3/46.2/54.1亿元），下调毛利率预测到16.4%/18.8%/19.9%（前值19.3%/22.7%/24.6%），并调整2026/27/28年净利润预测到-6.13/-3.32/-2.30亿元（前值-3.94/-1.14/-0.03亿元）。我们维持公司中性评级，目标价78元，对应10倍2027年市销率。

     卓胜微(300782) Maxscend released1H26results.Revenue rose6.2%YoY to RMB1.81bn,while net loss widened to RMB371mn;2Q26revenue reached RMB982mn(+3.6%YoY/+18.7%QoQ),but net loss deepened to RMB226mn,both belowBloomberg consensus.GPM fell12.4ppts to16.4%,as low fab loading,depreciation,pricing pressure and module ramp costs overwhelmed miximprovement.Maxscend is simultaneously digesting legacy inventory,executing its Fab-Lite transition and pivoting toward optical interconnect.Withdemand recovery uncertain and utilization subdued,we cut FY26E/FY27Erevenue by2.1%/2.4%and GPM by11.7ppts/9.6ppts.Maintain HOLD andlower TP to RMB74.2,based on40x2027E EV/EBITDA,similar to1-SD belowthe historical mean. Module growth outpaced discrete,but margins lagged.In1H26,RFmodule revenue climbed22.9%YoY to RMB929mn,lifting its sales mix to51%,as L-PAMiD shipments accelerated and Wi-Fi7scaled;Wi-Fi8alsoentered small-volume shipments.In contrast,RF discrete sales fell8.3%YoY to RMB824mn amid soft handset demand and ongoing inventorydigestion.The richer module mix has yet to translate into profitability,asmodule GPM fell15.6ppts to13.1%,while discrete GPM dropped10.5pptsto17.8%.We expect volume growth,yield improvement,greatercustomization and cost-down to underpin a gradual margin recovery. Fab utilization remains the key earnings swing factor.Xinzhuo Fab’srevenue increased43.8%YoY to RMB694mn in1H26,while its net lossnarrowed to RMB256mn from RMB337mn in1H25.The12-inch fab hasmonthly capacity of9k wafers and has been running at roughly50–60%utilization,per mgmt.,while the6-inch filter line has reached15kwafers/month.Utilization improved from1Q26and should continue rising in2H26,although mgmt.does not expect a high FY26level.We believe adurable turnaround requires both higher loading and better unit economicsthrough yield gains,cost down,and enhanced pricing. Optical interconnect extends the platform’s runway but also raises theexecution bar.Maxscend is repurposing its SOI and SiGe capabilities foroptical and electrical chips used in AIDCs.First-generation SiGe electrical-chip products are under collaboration,while the SiPho process platform isstill undergoing finalization.The April placement’s RMB3.46bn net proceedsprovide sufficient funding,but customer qualification and volume productionremain distant milestones,in our view.We therefore assign no materialnear-term earnings contribution.Key upside risks include faster utilizationrecovery,stronger L-PAMiD wins or earlier optical validation;key downsiderisks include weak demand,slower qualification,intensifying competition,etc.

     卓胜微(300782) 投资要点 射频龙头强势回归，L-PAMiD放量驱动业绩拐点确立。公司作为国内率先实现射频前端全链条自主可控的龙头企业，射频开关、LNA全球市占率稳居行业前列，6英寸SAW滤波器产线已实现1.5万片/月的产能目标，构筑坚实业绩基本盘。2026年起公司L-PAMiD高端模组正式进入放量周期，该产品打破海外厂商长期垄断，是业界首次实现全国产供应链的系列产品，叠加海外龙头企业退出中国市场、地缘摩擦催化国产替代加速，公司有望承接市场份额，驱动该产品实现数倍增长。 硅光IDM平台凸显技术稀缺性，先进制程构筑技术领先壁垒。公司率先实现Fab-Lite转型，2026年3月发布MaxExplore湖光源启工艺平台，向特色工艺迭代，在Fab-Lite转型过程中逐步积累了IPD、SAW、SOI、BCD、异构集成及其他高频材料及特色高频器件等核心技术矩阵和生产制造能力，深度储备了面向高端射频、卫星通信、光通信等前沿领域的基础工艺技术底蕴，适配800G/1.6T/3.2T超高速光模块核心芯片需求，受益于AI算力驱动下硅光芯片国产替代的历史性机遇。 射频+硅光双轮驱动打开千亿成长空间，底部反转开启长期成长新周期。公司以射频主业为基本盘，依托IDM全链条能力实现高端射频产品国产替代突破，同时依托“设计+工艺”双轮驱动的核心优势，前瞻布局硅光黄金赛道。AI算力爆发驱动全球硅光芯片市场规模2024-2030年复合增速高达46%，公司硅光全栈技术布局持续落地，IDM平台可充分承接国产替代转单需求，有望在光通信赛道打开新增长曲线，当前业绩底部反转趋势明确，长期成长空间广阔。 投资预测与评级测评：射频格局优化、模组成势放量、硅光蓄力进阶，双轮驱动业绩与估值共振。公司深度受益海外巨头退出带来的份额迁移，我们基于测算，射频业务模组收入占比2028年有望升高至6成，硅光业务逐步贡献收入，消费电子加光通信成长结构渐显。我们预计26-28年营业收入为40.96/50.01/61.83亿元，归母净利润-0.03/2.62/4.87亿元，27-28年对应PE分别为233/125倍，维持“买入”评级。 风险提示：核心业务市场需求不及预；高端产品放量不及预期；产线爬坡不及预期；研发迭代与专利诉讼；地缘政治与供应链波动；行业竞争加剧风险；光通信业务研发与商业化不及预期风险。

     卓胜微(300782) 4Q25收入同比下滑，1Q26收入同比恢复增长，利润端承压：4Q25/1Q26 营收分别为9.57/8.28亿元（人民币，下同），低于VA一致预期的11.53/10.41亿元。1Q26营收同比增9.5%，我们认为L-PAMiD产品从小批量出货顺利进入大规模交付阶段，加上无线连接（Wifi）产品，短距通信感知系统产品等新产品在2025年上线，或对收入有正面作用。总体从RF行业的需求看，AI技术发展带动全球存储芯片需求和价格激增，引发上游基板等原材料供需紧张，进而对下游智能手机行业市场结构与周期规律产生影响。从利润端来看，公司毛利率3Q25/4Q25/1Q26分别为23.4%/22.8%/18.5%，我们认为公司主要业务处于Fab Lite模式转型期间，利润端受到折旧带动成本费用增加、行业竞争持续激烈、供给侧部分原材料价格波动、产品结构变化等因素影响。我们认为公司短期毛利或继续承压。公司4Q25/1Q26净利率分别为-1.22/-1.44亿元，均不及市场预期。同时，近期公司计划向激励对象定向发行限制性股票162.6万股，占总股本的0.2828%。之前公司向特定对象以86.78元/股发行超4000万股。 探索新赛道：我们认为，公司或利用其6英寸特种工艺、12英寸异质硅基工艺平台积极探索RF之外领域。公司或依托MaxExplore湖光源启工艺平台，释放芯卓RF SOI、化合物半导体技术等特色工艺能力，赋能工艺平台向光通信、低功耗智能等领域延伸，培育新增长曲线。

     卓胜微(300782) 核心观点 2025年业绩承压，1Q26收入恢复同比增长。公司2025年实现收入37.26亿元（YoY-16.96%），归母净利润-2.93亿元（YoY-172.89%），扣非归母净利润-3.48亿元(YoY-195.62%)，受芯卓固定资产转固及市场竞争影响，毛利率同比下降13.8pct至25.67%，研发费用同比减少13.1%至8.67亿元，研发费率同比提高1.0pct至23.26%。1Q26营收8.28亿元(YoY+9.49%，QoQ-13.53%)，归母净利润-1.44亿元(YoY-210%，QoQ-18%)，毛利率18.45%（YoY-12.56pct，QoQ-4.3pct）。 两大产品线均收入同比减少，毛利率同比下降。分产品线来看，2025年公司射频分立器件收入19.45亿元（YoY-22.49%），占比52%，毛利率同比下降16.0pct至26.23%；射频模组收入16.76亿元（YoY-11.20%），占比45%，毛利率同比下降11.9pct至24.37%。 6英寸晶圆生产线单月产能达15000片，12英寸线步入稳定生产阶段。公司持续深耕6英寸特种工艺、12英寸异质硅基工艺平台及先进异构集成三大核心技术平台，延展“异质+异构”技术路线。其中6英寸滤波器产线的产品品类已实现全面布局，2025年底实现单月15000片的产能目标，对滤波器工艺有高度要求的L-PAMiD产品从小批量出货顺利进入大规模交付阶段。12英寸实现产能快速爬坡并步入稳定生产阶段，基于自有产线能力设计并产出的射频传导开关、天线调谐开关、低噪声放大器等及集成的相关模组等已陆续通过客户导入验证，终端产品基于自有产线的产出占比逐季度快速增长。 布局特种工艺线，已储备面向光通信等前沿领域的基础工艺技术。公司加大高性能射频及半导体特色工艺的研发投入与产业化推进，在高端封装、高频材料及特色高频器件等关键工艺方向逐步实现突破与规模化应用，相关技术可广泛适配移动通信、智能终端、高频通信、高压模拟等领域。具体来说，公司在BCD工艺、GaAs工艺、异构集成工艺均取得进展，其中先进集成工艺已实现技术落地和闭环，为未来光电共封等高集成度产品提供核心支撑。 投资建议：射频前端产品平台型企业，维持“优于大市”评级 由于手机需求较弱，价格竞争激烈及产线折旧增加，我们下调公司2026-2028年归母净利润至5.01/6.86/7.62亿元（2026-2027年前值为7.49/9.55亿元），对应2026年4月28日股价的PE分别为120/88/79x。公司已形成射频前端产品平台，维持“优于大市”评级。 风险提示：需求不及预期，竞争加剧的风险，产能利用率不及预期。

     卓胜微(300782) Maxscend released its FY25results.Revenue declined by17%to RMB3.7bn(9%below BBG consensus and ours),while net loss was RMB293mn.GPMdeclined by13.8ppts to25.7%(1ppt below BBG consensus/6ppts below ours)due to1)low utilization rates at both6-inch(~50%)and12-inch(30-40%)fabs,2)an unfavorable product mix due to the delay in higher-margin module rampand a greater contribution from lower-value products,and3)increased rawmaterial costs driven by AI-related demand crowding.More fundamentally,theCompany remains in a transition phase toward a fab-lite model with elevateddepreciation and ramp inefficiencies continuing to pressure near-term earnings.Maintain HOLD on the Company with TP revised to RMB91,correspondingto45x2027E EV/EBITDA(rolled forward from45x2026E)to reflect thedelayed pace of margin normalization and earnings recovery.We lower oursales forecast for2026/27E by24%/27%,and GPM by8.7ppts/8.2ppts,reflecting intensified market competition and low fab utilization. Revenue mix gradually improving on L-PAMiD ramp,though stillbelow potential.We view L-PAMiD as the key driver of medium-termrecovery,given its successful entry into domestic tier-1supply chains andclear advantages in cost,size,and integration via bare-die packaging.InFY25,RF module mix increased to45%(from42%in FY24),althoughabsolute revenue declined11%YoY due to delayed ramp and supplyconstraints earlier in the year.Meanwhile,RF discrete revenue mix fell to52%(from56%),with revenue declining~22%YoY,reflecting both weakerend demand and pricing pressure in more commoditized segments.Weexpect mix to continue improving into2026on the back of L-PAMiD rampand increasing contribution from high-integration modules. 1Q26earnings showed early signs of stabilization,but marginpressure persists.Revenue grew9%YoY to RMB828mn but declined14%QoQ due to seasonality,while GPM fell to18.5%(vs.31%in1Q25and22.8%in4Q25)in1Q26,reflecting continued low utilization,elevateddepreciation,and ongoing pricing pressure as the Company prioritizesshare gains.We expect revenue to gradually recover through2026on L-PAMiD ramp,but margin recovery will likely lag,with meaningfulimprovement contingent on utilization ramp and higher contribution fromcustomized higher-value modules. 12-inch Xinzhuo fab a long-term strategic asset with limited near-termcatalysts.The fab has reached stable mass production with competitiveyields and supports key processes such as SOI(silicon on insulator)andheterogeneous integration,enabling internalization of high-value modules.While low utilization continues to weigh on margins,we see it driving long-term competitiveness and potential margin upside,with earningscontribution dependent on utilization ramp. Maintain HOLD with TP revised to RMB91,corresponding to rollover2027E EV/EBITDA of45x(prev.45x2026E EV/EBITDA)as we expect salesto stabilize on L-PAMiD ramp while profitability remains constrained by lowutilization and elevated depreciation,both of which are unlikely to materiallyimprove within2026.However,we think the Company deserves a premiumto peers due to its unique positioning as a vertically integrated,full-stackRFFE player while most other peers remain fabless or partially integrated.Upside risks:Improving end market demand,raw material price reduction,etc.;downside risks:Worsening end market demand,R&D challenges,etc.