卓胜微(300782) 核心观点 2025年业绩承压，1Q26收入恢复同比增长。公司2025年实现收入37.26亿元（YoY-16.96%），归母净利润-2.93亿元（YoY-172.89%），扣非归母净利润-3.48亿元(YoY-195.62%)，受芯卓固定资产转固及市场竞争影响，毛利率同比下降13.8pct至25.67%，研发费用同比减少13.1%至8.67亿元，研发费率同比提高1.0pct至23.26%。1Q26营收8.28亿元(YoY+9.49%，QoQ-13.53%)，归母净利润-1.44亿元(YoY-210%，QoQ-18%)，毛利率18.45%（YoY-12.56pct，QoQ-4.3pct）。 两大产品线均收入同比减少，毛利率同比下降。分产品线来看，2025年公司射频分立器件收入19.45亿元（YoY-22.49%），占比52%，毛利率同比下降16.0pct至26.23%；射频模组收入16.76亿元（YoY-11.20%），占比45%，毛利率同比下降11.9pct至24.37%。 6英寸晶圆生产线单月产能达15000片，12英寸线步入稳定生产阶段。公司持续深耕6英寸特种工艺、12英寸异质硅基工艺平台及先进异构集成三大核心技术平台，延展“异质+异构”技术路线。其中6英寸滤波器产线的产品品类已实现全面布局，2025年底实现单月15000片的产能目标，对滤波器工艺有高度要求的L-PAMiD产品从小批量出货顺利进入大规模交付阶段。12英寸实现产能快速爬坡并步入稳定生产阶段，基于自有产线能力设计并产出的射频传导开关、天线调谐开关、低噪声放大器等及集成的相关模组等已陆续通过客户导入验证，终端产品基于自有产线的产出占比逐季度快速增长。 布局特种工艺线，已储备面向光通信等前沿领域的基础工艺技术。公司加大高性能射频及半导体特色工艺的研发投入与产业化推进，在高端封装、高频材料及特色高频器件等关键工艺方向逐步实现突破与规模化应用，相关技术可广泛适配移动通信、智能终端、高频通信、高压模拟等领域。具体来说，公司在BCD工艺、GaAs工艺、异构集成工艺均取得进展，其中先进集成工艺已实现技术落地和闭环，为未来光电共封等高集成度产品提供核心支撑。 投资建议：射频前端产品平台型企业，维持“优于大市”评级 由于手机需求较弱，价格竞争激烈及产线折旧增加，我们下调公司2026-2028年归母净利润至5.01/6.86/7.62亿元（2026-2027年前值为7.49/9.55亿元），对应2026年4月28日股价的PE分别为120/88/79x。公司已形成射频前端产品平台，维持“优于大市”评级。 风险提示：需求不及预期，竞争加剧的风险，产能利用率不及预期。

     卓胜微(300782) Maxscend released its FY25results.Revenue declined by17%to RMB3.7bn(9%below BBG consensus and ours),while net loss was RMB293mn.GPMdeclined by13.8ppts to25.7%(1ppt below BBG consensus/6ppts below ours)due to1)low utilization rates at both6-inch(~50%)and12-inch(30-40%)fabs,2)an unfavorable product mix due to the delay in higher-margin module rampand a greater contribution from lower-value products,and3)increased rawmaterial costs driven by AI-related demand crowding.More fundamentally,theCompany remains in a transition phase toward a fab-lite model with elevateddepreciation and ramp inefficiencies continuing to pressure near-term earnings.Maintain HOLD on the Company with TP revised to RMB91,correspondingto45x2027E EV/EBITDA(rolled forward from45x2026E)to reflect thedelayed pace of margin normalization and earnings recovery.We lower oursales forecast for2026/27E by24%/27%,and GPM by8.7ppts/8.2ppts,reflecting intensified market competition and low fab utilization. Revenue mix gradually improving on L-PAMiD ramp,though stillbelow potential.We view L-PAMiD as the key driver of medium-termrecovery,given its successful entry into domestic tier-1supply chains andclear advantages in cost,size,and integration via bare-die packaging.InFY25,RF module mix increased to45%(from42%in FY24),althoughabsolute revenue declined11%YoY due to delayed ramp and supplyconstraints earlier in the year.Meanwhile,RF discrete revenue mix fell to52%(from56%),with revenue declining~22%YoY,reflecting both weakerend demand and pricing pressure in more commoditized segments.Weexpect mix to continue improving into2026on the back of L-PAMiD rampand increasing contribution from high-integration modules. 1Q26earnings showed early signs of stabilization,but marginpressure persists.Revenue grew9%YoY to RMB828mn but declined14%QoQ due to seasonality,while GPM fell to18.5%(vs.31%in1Q25and22.8%in4Q25)in1Q26,reflecting continued low utilization,elevateddepreciation,and ongoing pricing pressure as the Company prioritizesshare gains.We expect revenue to gradually recover through2026on L-PAMiD ramp,but margin recovery will likely lag,with meaningfulimprovement contingent on utilization ramp and higher contribution fromcustomized higher-value modules. 12-inch Xinzhuo fab a long-term strategic asset with limited near-termcatalysts.The fab has reached stable mass production with competitiveyields and supports key processes such as SOI(silicon on insulator)andheterogeneous integration,enabling internalization of high-value modules.While low utilization continues to weigh on margins,we see it driving long-term competitiveness and potential margin upside,with earningscontribution dependent on utilization ramp. Maintain HOLD with TP revised to RMB91,corresponding to rollover2027E EV/EBITDA of45x(prev.45x2026E EV/EBITDA)as we expect salesto stabilize on L-PAMiD ramp while profitability remains constrained by lowutilization and elevated depreciation,both of which are unlikely to materiallyimprove within2026.However,we think the Company deserves a premiumto peers due to its unique positioning as a vertically integrated,full-stackRFFE player while most other peers remain fabless or partially integrated.Upside risks:Improving end market demand,raw material price reduction,etc.;downside risks:Worsening end market demand,R&D challenges,etc.

     卓胜微(300782) 事件 公司发布业绩预告，预计2025年营收同比下降约16%-18%，归母净利润同比减少约163.46%-173.41%。 投资要点 Fab-Lite模式转型过程中，短期业绩承压。2025年受产能建设的投入增加及供应转化、行业竞争持续激烈、供给侧部分原材料产品交付环节紧张、下游客户库存结构优化调整等因素影响，公司预计2025年实现营业收入37-37.5亿元，同比下降约16%-18%，归母净利润-2.95到-2.55亿元，同比减少约163.46%-173.41%。 光通信、卫星通讯、高端射频积极储备，未来成长可期。在SOI工艺方面，目前公司的SOI技术已从单一产品应用发展为覆盖射频前端全品类的核心技术平台，随着第二代SOI工艺的持续突破，将进一步巩固其在全球射频芯片市场的地位。在锗硅工艺方面，公司发布多款基于锗硅工艺的高性能低功耗移动通信信号低噪声放大器产品。锗硅也是硅光平台实现高效光电转换的核心材料，能够弥补硅在1.31/1.55um光通信波段"不吸光、难高效发光/调制"的本征缺陷。此外，公司已成为智能终端接入星网等商业航天网络的关键供应商之一，并已有适用NTN标准的射频前端芯片等产品处于少量出货阶段。 投资建议： 我们预计公司2025/2026/2027年营业收入分别为37.2/42.0/50.0亿元，归母净利润分别为-2.7/2.5/5.0亿元，维持“买入”评级。 风险提示： 市场复苏不及预期；竞争格局加剧风险；产品研发及技术创新不及预期；客户导入不及预期。