序号 | 研究机构 | 分析师 | 投资评级 | 报告标题 | 更新日 |
| | | 上期评级 | 评级变动 | | |
1 | 招银国际 | Lily Yang,Kevin Zhang | 维持 | 买入 | Entering 2025 with a clean slate,with the worst left behind | 2025-01-20 |
闻泰科技(600745)
Wingtech announced its preliminary FY24 results. The company expects a netloss to be around RMB3.5-4.55bn (vs. RMB1.1bn NP in FY23). Mgmt. attributedthe NL primarily to 1) impairment related to the sale of ODM business announcedin Dec (link), 2) a write-down on deferred tax assets, and 3) further goodwillimpairments (RMB600mn/RMB500mn in 2022/23, with RMB200mn to be fullyimpaired in 2024). Despite short-term financial setbacks, we believe Wingtech isbetter-positioned for LT value creation as it moves forward with a lighter load asit transforms itself to a predominately semiconductor-focused company. MaintainBUY with TP unchanged at RMB52.
Net loss in FY24 due to one-off impairments from ODM spin-off. PerCounterpoint, the top three ODM players (Longcheer, Huaqin, Wingtech)accounted for 75% of total market in 1H24 in China. Wingtech ranked thirdwith 17% share, down 3ppts vs. 1H23. Despite a challenging 1H24, its ODMbusiness continued to improve in 4Q (after +46%/15% YoY/QoQ in 3Q), witha record revenue (est. double-digit YoY and single-digit QoQ). Excluding theimpairments (ODM business spin-off, write-down on DTA, and goodwill), thesegment turned profitable in 4Q as mgmt. expected. However, ODM is a lowmargin business, with the top three ODM players in China seeing <3% NPMon average in 9M24. We see No.2 player Huaqin (603296 CH, NR) is activelydiversifying its business portfolio towards higher-margin opportunities(recently acquired 75% of HCTRobot). We believe Wingtech is betterpositioned now as it moves forward with a lighter load.
Semi business continued to show resilience amid seasonal slowdown.Semi business revenue grew sequentially in FY24 (2Q/3Q: 10/15% QoQ).While 4Q24 sales faced seasonal softness, the business still recorded singledigit YoY (~7%) and flattish QoQ growth, driven by strong demand inconsumer, data center, and auto sectors. Notably, China contributed ~40%of total semi revenue, offsetting weakness overseas resulting from continuedinventory correction. 4Q GPM was near 2Q level (1Q/2Q/3Q: 31.0%/38.7%/40.5%). Mgmt. expects overseas auto OEMs to resume restocking in2025, with auto revenue currently accounting for 60% of total semi revenue.
Looking forward, we expect to see more upside in Wingtech’s valuation,lifted by 1) increasing semiconductor revenue share, 2) robust domestic autodemand with gradual recovery overseas, and 3) a re-rating opportunity givenits business transformation to being a semi-centric company. Maintain BUY,with TP unchanged at RMB52, corresponding to 24.8x FY25E P/E, basedon unchanged financial forecasts. Potential risks include heightened USChina trade relations, unfavourable exchange rates, and weaker-thanexpected overseas auto inventory correction. |
2 | 招银国际 | Lily Yang,Kevin Zhang | 维持 | 买入 | Valuation to improve on ODM business spin-off | 2025-01-03 |
闻泰科技(600745)
On December 31, 2024, Wingtech signed a “Letter of Intent for Sale” for ninewholly-owned ODM subsidiaries with Luxshare Limited in an all-cash deal. Thismove follows its recent addition to the US trade blacklist (news). According tomgmt., this transaction serves two primary purposes: (1) to align with the riskpreferences of certain ODM clients, and (2) to mitigate potential risks to itssemiconductor leg. The deal reflects a broader 2025 trend of event-driven M&Aopportunities in China's semiconductor sector amid strategic geopolitical shiftsand favourable policies, as indicated in our 2025 outlook report as a newinvestment theme (link). Maintain BUY on Wingtech, with TP unchanged atRMB52.
The sale exclusively involves its Android-focused ODM business, aburden on the company’s financial performance and valuation.Together, these subsidiaries held a total asset value of RMB28.2bn as of9M24, representing 36.1% of the company’s total assets and over 50% oftotal revenue (triggering one of CSRC’s asset restructuring regulations) in3Q24. In 9M24, the ODM segment contributed ~79% of total revenue butrecorded a substantial net loss of RMB1.2bn.
Wingtech will focus on its high-margin semiconductor business,Nexperia. In 9M24, semi segment generated RMB10.9bn in sales (~20%of total revenue), with GPM at 37% (RMB4bn) and NPM at 16%(RMB1.7bn), outperforming the company’s overall 9% GPM and 1% NPMduring the same period. In 2Q/3Q24, semi segment saw sequential growthof 6%/6%, driven by 1) strong domestic auto sales, recovering consumerelectronics and robust computing demand. We expect the company’s semisegment sales to grow by 11.8%/12.9% in FY25/26E, compared toBloomberg consensus of 9%/9%.
Maintain BUY, with TP unchanged at RMB52, corresponding to 24.8xFY25E P/E. We expect this business transformation will lead to a highervaluation for Wingtech, as it has almost transformed into a predominatelysemi-focused company. The company currently trades at 17.7x/12.2xFY25/26E P/E, which is appealing comparing to its domestic peers thattrade at an average 25/26E P/E of 30.3x/23.8x. Potential risks include:heightened China-US trade relations, and unfavourable exchange rates. |
3 | 华鑫证券 | 毛正,张璐 | 首次 | 买入 | 公司事件点评报告:半导体业务增长稳健,产品集成业务Q3明显好转 | 2024-11-06 |
闻泰科技(600745)
事件
闻泰科技发布2024年三季度报告:2024年前三季度公司实现营业收入531.61亿元,同比增长19.70%;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润4.15亿元,同比减少80.26%;实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润0.71亿元,同比减少96.41%。
投资要点
营业收入稳定增长,净利润Q3扭亏为盈
2024年前三季度公司实现营收531.61亿元,同比增长19.70%。其中Q3实现营收195.71亿元,同比增长28.71%,归母净利润实现2.74亿元,同比减少67.43%,环比扭亏为盈,改善明显。Q3半导体业务环比稳健增长,主要是汽车及工业与电力领域的收入保持稳健,消费电子类的收入环比恢复较快,业务毛利率达到40.50%,同比环比均提升明显;产品集成业务部分新项目开始量产出货,收入同比、环比均实现较大幅度增长。
中低压价格企稳,出货量与盈利环比改善
功率半导体行业Q2中低压产品价格逐渐企稳,出货量与盈利情况环比改善。下游来看,新能源车渗透率不断提升,插电式混合动力(含增程)占比持续提升,销量同比增长约7成;工业市场在可再生能源装机规模不断突破和AI数据中心高速增长的带动下有所复苏;消费电子也将在AI的带动下,即将迎来AI手机、AI PC等终端设备的新一轮换机周期。随着产业链中消费电子、汽车电子、高性能计算等领域的快速回升,功率半导体景气度逐步恢复上行,公司业务受益增长。
公司多方举措成效显著,产品集成业务大幅减亏
产品集成业务2024年Q3实现营收157.3亿元,环比增长14.79%,毛利率为3.8%,净亏损3.57亿元,剔除可转债利息费用和汇兑损失影响,产品集成业务第三季度明显好转。公司多方位举措提升产品集成业务经营质量:1)紧抓市场机遇,服务于高ASP产品,客户新项目导入顺利,部分已量产出货;2)合作共赢提升产品毛利率,积极优化上下游合作业务;3)优化运营,降本增效,产品集成业务2024年前三季度三大费用率同比降低。展望未来,公司将依托手机平板等传统优势业务,持续提升市占率,并在车载与AIoT、家电等新业务上快速增长,该业务将得到实质性改善。
盈利预测
预测公司2024-2026年收入分别为702.60、771.03、851.53亿元,EPS分别为0.66、2.02、2.49元,当前股价对应PE分别为69、22、18倍。随着下游的逐步回暖,公司半导体业务稳健增长、产品集成业务持续改善,首次覆盖,给予“买入”投资评级。
风险提示
宏观经济的风险,产品研发不及预期的风险,行业竞争加剧的风险,下游需求不及预期的风险。 |
4 | 上海证券 | 王红兵,陈凯 | 维持 | 买入 | 三季报点评:盈利能力环比改善,半导体业务带来持久动能 | 2024-11-05 |
闻泰科技(600745)
投资摘要
事件概述
10月26日,公司发布2024年三季度报告。公司2024Q1-3实现营业收入531.61亿元,yoy+19.70%,其中2024Q3实现营业收入195.71亿元,yoy+28.71%;实现归母净利润4.15亿元,其中2024Q3实现归母净利润2.74亿元,环比增长2.77亿元,实现扭亏为盈。
分析与判断
电气化&AI驱动持续发展,半导体业务支撑业绩稳步改善。半导体业务受汽车及工业电力领域带动以及消费电子领域的复苏,2024Q3公司半导体业务实现营业收入38.32亿元,环比增长5.86%;2024Q3实现净利润6.66亿元,qoq+18.92%。闻泰科技在半导体零部件领域加速垂直整合,持续强化自身供应能力,打造安全可控的供应体系,并持续加大研发投入,培育自主创新能力与核心竞争力,随着电气化、AI驱动持续发展,公司各主要产品的单机使用量及使用价值也在不断上升,据公司表述,目前在已有电动车客户中公司单车芯片使用量最高可达约1000颗/车;且随着AI产业蓬勃发展,算力需求带动AI服务器快速发展,需求持续强劲;公司前瞻布局,配套AI服务器的MOS产品约10美元/台,远高于普通非AI服务器的1美元/台。在终端应用驱动下,2024Q3公司半导体业务逐步复苏,毛利率达到40.5%,同比增长2.8个百分点。我们认为,公司坚持打造并提升整机产品核心竞争力、响应市场新需求开发高ASP产品有望强化自身在全球功率半导体产业链的地位,半导体业务条线有望持续向好。
提质增效成果显现,产品集成业务多条线亮点频出。受新项目价格较低、部分原材料涨价以及工厂人力成本上升等因素影响,2024H1产品集成业务承压。进入三季度,公司重点强化内部管理、控费增效,使得2024Q1-3三大费用率同比下降;公司紧抓市场增量机遇,加快推动高ASP产品对接,部分新项目已开始量产出货,带动营收大幅增长,2024Q3公司产品集成业务实现营收157.30亿元,yoy+45.58%;在增收控费基础之上,公司积极优化供应链上下游协同,通过商务条款及新进供应商改善成本,不断提升产品综合毛利率,2024Q3产品集成业务毛利率逐步恢复至3.8%。我们认为,在当前消费电子板块持续复苏背景下,随着公司内部费用结构优化调整及新业务逐步落地,产品集成业务有望保持逐季改善势头。
投资建议
维持“买入”评级。我们调整公司2024-2026年归母净利润预测至8.18/20.10/31.62亿元,对应EPS分别为0.66/1.62/2.54元,对应PE估值分别为66/27/17倍。
风险提示
终端需求复苏不及预期、订单落地不及预期、行业竞争加剧 |
5 | 浦银国际证券 | 沈岱,黄佳琦 | 维持 | 买入 | 三季度产品集成业务与功率半导体业务同频改善 | 2024-10-29 |
闻泰科技(600745)
调整目标价至人民币41.6元,潜在升幅15%,维持“买入”评级。
重申闻泰科技的“买入”评级:闻泰科技三季度的净利润为人民币2.7亿元,环比扭亏,业绩符合此前管理层对于公司基本面的判断,即今年产品集成业务盈利能力逐季改善,功率半导体业务基本面在二季度触底并向上。公司半导体业务触底上行幅度高于我们此前预期,因此我们上调2025年盈利增速预测至127%。当前,闻泰科技市盈率为22.2x,略低于过去5年历史均值水平,仍然具备上行空间。因此,我们对闻泰保持乐观判断。
产品集成业务扭亏在即。公司产品集成业务三季度录得收入157亿元,毛利率3.8%,净亏损3.6亿元,均实现环比增长或改善。主要得益于:1)手机ODM等供应链上游零部件成本改善;2)大客户产品规模提升;3)公司持续的降本增效。我们预期该业务有望在今年四季度实现扭亏,并在2025年贡献约1.3亿元的盈利增量。
安世半导体基本面周期开启上行,超出我们预期。安世半导体三季度录得收入38.3亿元,毛利率40.5%,净利润6.7亿元,同样均实现环比增长和改善。与我们此前判断一致,安世在本轮半导体下行周期中的下行空间较有限。而半导体业务毛利率恢复的程度好于我们此前判断,优于2021年水平,大幅高于2020年的低点。进一步看,临港晶圆厂有望承接安世功率半导体的制造,提供更加有成本竞争力的产品,抢夺国内市场份额。因此,我们上调安世半导体2025年盈利预测至25.3亿元,同比增长9%。
估值:结合闻泰3Q24业绩及展望,我们下调2024年的业绩预测至人民币11.5亿元,上调2025年盈利预测至26.1亿元。上调目标价至人民币41.6元,潜在升幅15%,对应2025年目标市盈率19.8x。
投资风险:智能手机等消费电子产品需求恢复不如预期。半导体行业基本面周期上行动能不足。国内或海外新能源车行业增长弱于预期。功率行业竞争加剧。公司投入较大,利润承压。 |
6 | 招银国际 | Lily Yang,Kevin Zhang | 维持 | 买入 | Both semi/ODM segments showed turnaround signals with sequential growth | 2024-10-28 |
闻泰科技(600745)
Wingtech released3Q24results and we attended the mgmt.call.Q3revenue wasRMB19.6bn(a record quarterly revenue since2020),up28.7%YoY/12.9%QoQ,beating Bloomberg consensus by16%.GPM was11%vs.9.2%/9.7%in1Q/2Q24,beating consensus of10.5%.Net profit was RMB274mn,turningpositive after Q2loss(-RMB3mn).Both ODM and semiconductor segmentsachieved sequential growth in sales(15%/6%QoQ)and GPM(both up1.8ppt),suggesting the business gradually recovered from the cyclical trough.We reviseup EPS forecast for25/26E by22%/15%on further margin improvement.Maintain BUY with TP adjusted to RMB52,based on25x2025E P/E basedon0.5SD below1-yr historical forward P/E(previously23.5x reflecting1SDbelow)as we think the worst has passed for both segments and turningpoint is in near sight.
Semiconductor sales grew on strong domestic auto demand andseasonal consumer electronics procurement;margin back to40%.3Qsemiconductor sales were RMB3.8bn(20%of3Q revenue),down4%YoYbut up6%QoQ.Revenue mix remained similar(vs.1H24),with autocontributing~60%.For3Q24,1)auto sales increased modestly,with mixedgrowth from domestic(strong)and overseas(weak);2)consumer electronicssales grew by double digits QoQ,driven by soaring computing demand andrecovering personal electronics restocking behaviour due to the upcomingholiday season;3)industrial/power/NE had weaker recovery with mild growthsequentially.Heading into Q4,we anticipate semiconductor sales to decline3%QoQ on seasonality,and Q4GPM to remain stable at40.5%.
Legacy ODM grew with revenue structure improvement;net lossnarrowed.ODM sales was RMB15.7bn in3Q24(80%of3Q revenue),up46%YoY and15%QoQ.Within the segment,smartphone/tablet contributed~50%of revenue(vs.~100%previously).The rest came from homeappliances/auto/IoT sales.Smartphone/tablet business began to profit thisquarter,while home appliances profited for two consecutive quarters.GPMrose to3.8%(vs.2%in2Q24)due to higher ASP,lower BOM costs and betteroperating efficiency.Excluding FX impacts,net loss narrowed in Q3at lessthan RMB10mn vs.RMB42mn in Q2.We expect Q4ODM sales to slightlydecrease2%,a mixed impact from seasonality and platform transition.
Maintain BUY,with TP adjusted to RMB52,based on25x2025E P/Ewhich is0.5SD below1-yr historical forward P/E as both segmentsindicate a turning point towards recovery.Potential risks include:slower-than-expected recovery in demand,heightened China-US trade relations,and unfavorable exchange rates. |